Doha or Die

How appropriate that the fate of global trade talks may be decided in Africa today when the leaders of Brazil, India and South Africa huddle in Pretoria. Developing countries stand to gain the most from the embattled Doha Round, which makes it all the more strange that these three regional economic powers are threatening to kill it.

What a switch from previous years, when the U.S. and Europe almost let Doha founder rather than reduce their agriculture subsidies. Now that dynamic has changed. The U.S. offered last month to cap annual farm subsidies to between $13 billion and $16.4 billion; current U.S. subsidies are even lower, at around $11 billion. Given that the U.S. walked away from the table earlier this year when a $17 billion offer was floated, that's a big concession.

This U.S. flexibility has created a spurt of goodwill, especially among European Union countries, many of which now look ready to do a deal. But the so-called advanced developing countries, led by Brazil and India, have turned up their noses. Bowing to their domestic constituencies, neither has even accepted the agricultural or industrial texts on offer with the World Trade Organization as a basis for discussion.