Thursday, December 18, 2008

Analyses of the Financial Meltdown from the Financial Times

Worst financial crisis in 60 years marks end of an era...from George Soros:

Every time the credit expansion ran into trouble the financial authorities intervened, injecting liquidity and finding other ways to stimulate the economy. That created a system of asymmetric incentives also known as moral hazard, which encouraged ever greater credit expansion. It was so successful that people came to believe in what former US president Ronald Reagan called the magic of the marketplace and I call market fundamentalism.

Fundamentalists believe that markets tend towards equilibrium and the common interest is best served by allowing participants to pursue their self-interest. It is an obvious misconception, because it was the intervention of the authorities that prevented financial markets from breaking down, not the markets But market fundamentalism emerged as the dominant ideology in the 1980s, when financial markets started to become globalised and the US started to run a current account deficit.

Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached 6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared.

The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on information from originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility.

and from Niall Feguson, whose book, "The Ascent of Money" is a fascinating read...
How a local Squall became a Global Tempest..

The phrase “perfect storm” has been trotted out once too often to characterise the past year’s financial crisis. Yet the real perfect storm may still lie ahead.

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