Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Simon World :: Chinese and Indian Models

Development before democracy?

Simon World :: Chinese and Indian Models:

Chinese and Indian Models

No, no, not the type that pose in swimsuits and lingerie - I speak of their models of development. Before you close this browser window though, consider that the relative success or failure of these two great Asian nations may very well determine the course of the 21st century, and set the example for other developing countries to follow. An interesting survey in Business Week looked at the views of prominent Indians and Chinese on the comparison between the risks to India and China going forward.

What I found interesting is that all the Chinese interviewed declined to comment on risks facing India (probably because more Indians know about China's problems than the other way around). The Indians, on the other hand, all believed that the main risk China had was the one thing their country had that the Chinese did not - their lack of democracy. They think that sooner or later (and many seem to believe sooner) China's affluence will force political change. Only one Chinese saw that as a risk, and he was a political science professor in Canada.

What both countries had in common is that they both tried forms of government for several decades that proved to be dismal failures for their people. However, it is a common argument in both countries to say that they needed that experience of dismal failure to get it right this time around. In a sense, the government of neither country has changed since 1950 - India is still a democracy, China still run by the Communist Party. But only to hair splitters will it not be obvious that both countries have now emphasized economic development over economic equality and autarky, whereas the reverse was the case. My personal view is that India was unique amongst developing countries in that their independence in 1948 was more propelled from within, rather than only a need for the colonizing power (Britain) to give up the country (although that was a contributing factor



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