Democracy, conflict and the future - PSD Blog - The World Bank Group - Private Sector Development

Democracy, conflict and the future - PSD Blog - The World Bank Group - Private Sector Development: "Martin Wolf is optimistic that recent economic developments favor the rise and stay of democratic regimes. [See graph]. Though he notes two important exceptions – both of which point towards a 'resource curse'.

First, huge natural resource rents cement autocracies, particularly when in the hands of the state. Elites have much to lose from equal sharing of the wealth, while the masses can impose few costs upon them. It is not the efforts of the people of Saudi Arabia who make their elite rich, but oil. Russia is in the same sad situation. Iraq is unlikely to emerge as a stable democracy, not because of ethnic and religious divisions, but because of oil wealth.

Second, sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources and lack of development are big obstacles to the emergence of stable democracies. The greatest danger is wars over resources among predatory elites. The movement is more likely to be from autocracy to instability than from autocracy to stable democracy."